Philippines YOY Remittances Growth
Sheets Included
SheetPhilippines_Total_YOY
SheetCountry_Flows_2020_2025
SheetSources_Method
SheetCountry_Scenarios_2020_2025
SheetScenario_Summary
SheetCorridor_Evidence
SheetReconciled_Country_Flows
SheetDisclosure_Tracker
SheetYOY_Growth_Justification
SheetProj_Assumptions_26_31
SheetTotal_Projection_26_31
SheetCountry_Projection_26_31
Philippines_Total_YOY
| Philippines Remittances - Year over Year (Official Baseline) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator: Personal remittances, received (current US$). 2009-2024 from World Bank WDI; 2025 uses WDI-like estimate based on BSP-reported +3.3% personal remittance growth. | |||||||||
| Country Name | Country Code | Indicator Name | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Philippines | PHL | Personal remittances, received (current US$) | 19959507639.085 | 21556633835.6025 | 23053626019.0124 | 24609679612.7445 | 26716840269.1056 | 28690797896.4983 | 29799395699.8779 |
| YoY Growth % | Annual growth vs prior year | ||||||||
| Source Basis | Data source by year | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | |
| 2025 Philippines official anchors | BSP 2025 personal remittances | 39619000000 | BSP 2025 cash remittances | 35633784000 | Model 2025 WDI-like value | 41608626328.20298 | Note: source-country shares are from BSP cash remittances Table 11 and are applied as allocation proxy to personal-remittance TAM. | ||
| Source Register | |||||||||
| Type | Source / Evidence | Link / Reference | Usage | Confidence | Limitation / Treatment | ||||
| Official Philippines totals | World Bank WDI - Personal remittances, received (current US$), indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/PHL/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | Primary annual USD baseline for 2009-2024 | High | World Bank WDI 2025 value is not populated at build date. | ||||
| 2025 official growth anchor | BSP / public full-year 2025 remittance release reporting personal remittances of USD 39.619bn and +3.3% annual growth | https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2026/02/16/730762/ofw-remittances-soar-to-all-time-high-35-63-billion-in-2025/ | Used to estimate 2025 WDI-like value by applying BSP growth to 2024 WDI | Medium-High | BSP personal remittance level and WDI level differ; model uses growth-rate bridge. | ||||
| Country split anchor | BSP Table 11 - Overseas Filipino Cash Remittances by Country | https://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/external/Table%2011.pdf | Primary country-flow allocation for 2023-2025 source-country shares | High | Country shares are cash-remittance basis, applied as proxy to personal-remittance TAM. | ||||
| Country-flow allocation method | Workbook tabs Corridor_Evidence and Reconciled_Country_Flows | Internal workbook tabs | Allocates annual totals across source countries and reconciles each year to Philippines_Total_YOY | Model-derived | Country-level values are estimates on personal-remittance basis unless directly disclosed. |
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Country_Flows_2020_2025
| Philippines Remittance Inflows by Source Country - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disclosure-weighted allocation model reconciled to Philippines_Total_YOY annual totals using BSP Table 11 country cash-remittance shares as official allocation proxy. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Confidence Tier | Allocation Share 2025 | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$) |
| Annual Total Control | PHL | Control | |||||||
| United States of America | USA | A | |||||||
| Singapore | SGP | A | |||||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | |||||||
| Japan | JPN | A | |||||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | A | |||||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | A | |||||||
| Canada | CAN | A | |||||||
| Qatar | QAT | A | |||||||
| Taiwan, Republic of China | TWN | B | |||||||
| Hong Kong, SAR China | HKG | B | |||||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | B | |||||||
| Malaysia | MYS | B | |||||||
| Germany | DEU | B | |||||||
| Kuwait | KWT | A | |||||||
| Cyprus | CYP | B | |||||||
| Panama | PAN | B | |||||||
| Oman | OMN | A | |||||||
| Marshall Islands | MHL | B | |||||||
| Australia | AUS | B | |||||||
| Greece | GRC | B | |||||||
| Bahrain | BHR | A | |||||||
| Liberia | LBR | C |
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Sources_Method
| Philippines Remittance Model - Sources & Method | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence register and methodology notes for Philippines remittance total, country-flow allocation, and future projection/model tabs. | |||||
| Category | Source | Link / Reference | Usage in Workbook | Confidence | Key Limitation / Treatment |
| Official Philippines totals | World Bank WDI - Personal remittances, received (current US$), indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/PHL/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | Primary annual USD baseline for Philippines_Total_YOY from 2009-2024. | High | World Bank Philippines 2025 value is not yet populated; 2025 is handled separately. |
| 2025 personal-remittance growth anchor | BSP 2025 full-year remittance releases / public reporting | https://www.bworldonline.com/top-stories/2026/02/16/730762/ofw-remittances-soar-to-all-time-high-35-63-billion-in-2025/ | Applies BSP-reported +3.3% personal-remittance growth to 2024 WDI to estimate WDI-like 2025 total. | Medium-High | BSP and WDI absolute levels differ; growth-rate bridge is disclosed. |
| Country split anchor | BSP Table 11 - Overseas Filipino Cash Remittances by Country | https://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/external/Table%2011.pdf | Anchors source-country shares for 2023, 2024 and 2025. | High | BSP Table 11 is cash-remittance basis, not personal-remittance basis. |
| Country-flow allocation method | Workbook tabs Country_Flows_2020_2025, Corridor_Evidence and Reconciled_Country_Flows | Internal workbook tabs | Allocates annual totals across source countries and reconciles each year to Philippines_Total_YOY. | Model-derived | Country-level values are estimates unless directly disclosed; confidence tiers identify precision level. |
| Projection method | Workbook tabs Proj_Assumptions_26_31 and Total_Projection_26_31 | Internal workbook tabs | Builds low/base/high projected totals from the 2025 provisional baseline. | Model-derived | Not a BSP/World Bank forecast; investor scenario planning only. |
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Country_Scenarios_2020_2025
| Philippines Country Flow Scenarios - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside/base/upside scenario bands around estimated country-flow allocations. Base case links to Country_Flows_2020_2025; bands vary by confidence tier. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Confidence Tier | Band % | Scenario | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) |
| United States of America | USA | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| United States of America | USA | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| United States of America | USA | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Singapore | SGP | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Singapore | SGP | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Singapore | SGP | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Japan | JPN | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Japan | JPN | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Japan | JPN | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Canada | CAN | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Canada | CAN | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Canada | CAN | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Qatar | QAT | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Qatar | QAT | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Qatar | QAT | A | 0.1 | Upside |
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Scenario_Summary
| Philippines Scenario Summary - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregated downside/base/upside view linked to Country_Scenarios_2020_2025. Use this tab as the executive scenario bridge before projections. | |||||||||
| Scenario | Band Logic | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$) | 2020-2025 CAGR | 2025 Share vs Base |
| Downside | Tier-adjusted lower corridor allocation: A -10%, B -18%, C -30% | ||||||||
| Base | Country_Flows_2020_2025 allocation reconciled to Philippines annual totals | ||||||||
| Upside | Tier-adjusted higher corridor allocation: A +10%, B +18%, C +30% | ||||||||
| Interpretation note: The base case reconciles to Philippines annual official/provisional totals. Downside/upside scenarios show allocation and commercial uncertainty bands, not official totals. |
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Corridor_Evidence
| Philippines Corridor Evidence Score - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence-weighted corridor scoring engine. BSP Table 11 2023-2025 country cash-remittance values are converted to shares and reconciled to annual personal-remittance totals. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Region Group | Data Status | Primary Reference | Disclosure Notes | Base Evidence Score (0-1000) | 2020 Adj | 2021 Adj | 2022 Adj |
| United States of America | USA | Americas Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Largest BSP-reported source; note US correspondent bank routing caveat | 0.3969960080579711 | 1.051776865575353 | 1.041465327677555 | 1.031153789779758 |
| Singapore | SGP | ASEAN / Asia Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Second-largest source in 2025; high digital/correspondent relevance | 0.07250877425759779 | 0.9344018518968361 | 0.9538685571446867 | 0.9684685860805748 |
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | Middle East Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Core OFW labour corridor | 0.06574895329668048 | 0.8700703247204481 | 0.8981371093888495 | 0.9215260966125175 |
| Japan | JPN | Advanced Asia | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Major Asian source corridor | 0.05011429602873498 | 0.9637496967232949 | 0.9838278154050303 | 0.9988864044163317 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | Europe Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Major European source; professional/seafarer route relevance | 0.04622767539927839 | 0.9808828762658152 | 1.00131793618802 | 1.016644231129673 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | Middle East Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Major GCC corridor | 0.04594917564746982 | 0.8609313408284182 | 0.8887033195648187 | 0.911846635178486 |
| Canada | CAN | Americas Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Large North American diaspora corridor | 0.03501766750340071 | 1.050862242945207 | 1.04055967193594 | 1.030257100926674 |
| Qatar | QAT | Middle East Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Core GCC corridor | 0.02913734898320089 | 0.8885891038855804 | 0.9172532685270507 | 0.9411400723949427 |
| Taiwan, Republic of China | TWN | Advanced Asia | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Manufacturing/workforce and family-support corridor | 0.02794833689287671 | 0.9281145949764666 | 0.947450315705143 | 0.9619521062516503 |
| Hong Kong, SAR China | HKG | Advanced Asia | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Domestic worker / services corridor | 0.02471104387903345 | 0.8865799993735938 | 0.9050504160272104 | 0.9189032285174228 |
| Korea (South) | KOR | Advanced Asia | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Advanced Asia corridor | 0.02442081368624786 | 0.9798053414926333 | 1.00021795277373 | 1.015527411234552 |
| Malaysia | MYS | ASEAN / Asia Adjacent | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | ASEAN labour/services corridor | 0.0189469914281346 | 0.9842781081561472 | 1.004783902076067 | 1.020163247516007 |
| Germany | DEU | Europe / OECD | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | European professional/labour corridor | 0.0176037156199858 | 0.9892889000703906 | 1.009899085488524 | 1.025356724552124 |
| Kuwait | KWT | Middle East Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | GCC labour corridor | 0.01742228667042489 | 0.9326831330688605 | 0.9627696857485011 | 0.9878418129815351 |
| Cyprus | CYP | Europe / Seafarer Corridor | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Shipping/seafarer corridor relevance | 0.01123203755177951 | 0.916486089080631 | 0.9789737769724922 | 1.03104685021571 |
| Panama | PAN | Maritime / Americas | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Maritime/seafarer routing corridor | 0.010205988788617 | 0.8522951838047558 | 0.910406219064171 | 0.9588320817803503 |
| Oman | OMN | Middle East Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | GCC labour corridor | 0.009961866525317659 | 0.9535009340946831 | 0.9842590287428986 | 1.009890774283078 |
| Marshall Islands | MHL | Maritime / Pacific | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Maritime/seafarer corridor | 0.009183447932445231 | 0.8431040940573042 | 0.9005884641066659 | 0.9484921058144673 |
| Australia | AUS | Oceania Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Oceania diaspora corridor | 0.008842423246433778 | 0.976597571791527 | 0.9969433545371836 | 1.012202691596426 |
| Greece | GRC | Europe / Seafarer Corridor | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Shipping/seafarer corridor relevance | 0.00866910457783546 | 0.899100019343256 | 0.960402293389387 | 1.011487521761163 |
| Bahrain | BHR | Middle East Core | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Small GCC corridor | 0.007590044324228939 | 0.9329208447895025 | 0.9630150655891638 | 0.9880935829222149 |
| Liberia | LBR | Maritime / Africa | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | Maritime flag/state related corridor | 0.005662912476541925 | 0.7948972706871464 | 0.8490948118703608 | 0.8942594295230396 |
| Netherlands | NLD | Europe / OECD | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | European corridor | 0.005370830108865227 | 0.9601275814107106 | 0.9801302393567671 | 0.9951322328163095 |
| Italy | ITA | Europe / OECD | Disclosed anchor | BSP Table 11 | European corridor | 0.005002556001349731 | 0.883497771259018 | 0.9019039748269141 | 0.9157086275028362 |
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Reconciled_Country_Flows
| Philippines Reconciled Country Flows - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transforms Corridor_Evidence weighted scores into source-country shares and values reconciled to Philippines_Total_YOY annual totals. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2020 Share | 2020 Value (US$) | 2021 Share | 2021 Value (US$) | 2022 Share | 2022 Value (US$) | 2023 Share | 2023 Value (US$) |
| United States of America | USA | ||||||||
| Singapore | SGP | ||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | ||||||||
| Japan | JPN | ||||||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | ||||||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | ||||||||
| Canada | CAN | ||||||||
| Qatar | QAT | ||||||||
| Taiwan, Republic of China | TWN | ||||||||
| Hong Kong, SAR China | HKG | ||||||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | ||||||||
| Malaysia | MYS | ||||||||
| Germany | DEU | ||||||||
| Kuwait | KWT | ||||||||
| Cyprus | CYP | ||||||||
| Panama | PAN | ||||||||
| Oman | OMN | ||||||||
| Marshall Islands | MHL | ||||||||
| Australia | AUS | ||||||||
| Greece | GRC | ||||||||
| Bahrain | BHR | ||||||||
| Liberia | LBR | ||||||||
| Netherlands | NLD | ||||||||
| Italy | ITA |
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Disclosure_Tracker
| Philippines Disclosure Tracker | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracks disclosure quality by source country and identifies which allocations are directly disclosed, partially supported, or model-estimated. | ||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Has Public Source-Country Disclosure? | Latest Year Found | Data Granularity | Directly Usable for Philippines Mapping? | Confidence Tier | Reference Basis | Action / Upgrade Needed |
| United States of America | USA | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Singapore | SGP | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Japan | JPN | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| United Kingdom | GBR | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Canada | CAN | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Qatar | QAT | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Taiwan, Republic of China | TWN | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Hong Kong, SAR China | HKG | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Korea (South) | KOR | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Malaysia | MYS | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Germany | DEU | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Kuwait | KWT | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Cyprus | CYP | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Panama | PAN | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Oman | OMN | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Marshall Islands | MHL | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Australia | AUS | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Greece | GRC | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Bahrain | BHR | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | A | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Liberia | LBR | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Residual/proxy only | C | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Netherlands | NLD | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
| Italy | ITA | Yes / BSP disclosed anchor | 2025p | Country cash remittance value by source country | Directly usable as cash-share proxy for personal-remittance allocation | B | BSP Table 11 | Update when BSP Table 11 is refreshed; reconcile to WDI once 2025 WDI is published. |
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YOY_Growth_Justification
| Philippines YoY Growth Justification | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Explains the observed 2020-2025 Philippines remittance growth pattern and how it should be interpreted in future projections. | |||||
| Topic | Explicit Justification | How It Affects YoY / Projection Logic | Evidence Strength | Citation / Evidence | Model Treatment |
| Resilient OFW remittance base | The Philippines has a structurally large overseas worker and seafarer base, producing stable remittance inflows even during external shocks. | Supports relatively steady mid-single-digit growth rather than startup-like volatility. | High | World Bank WDI series; BSP full-year remittance releases | Use stable base growth assumptions with limited downside volatility. |
| 2020 pandemic dip and recovery | World Bank WDI shows a 2020 decline followed by steady recovery in 2021-2024. | Explains why the model should not extrapolate a one-off rebound too aggressively. | High | World Bank WDI Philippines personal remittance series | Moderate forward growth after 2025. |
| 2025 record cash and personal remittances | BSP/public reporting shows 2025 cash remittances of USD 35.63bn and personal remittances of USD 39.62bn, both up about 3.3%. | Supports 2025 as a new high in BSP basis, but requires disclosed bridge to WDI basis. | High for BSP figures; Medium for WDI-like bridge | BSP Table 11; BusinessWorld/BSP release on 2025 remittances | Use +3.3% growth bridge to create provisional WDI-like 2025 total. |
| US and correspondent-bank concentration | BSP data shows the United States as the largest source, but BSP notes remittance centers often route through US correspondent banks. | US share may overstate ultimate origin; allocation should carry disclosure caveat. | High | BSP Table 11 and BSP data caveat in public reporting | Flag USA/correspondent concentration in Disclosure_Tracker. |
| Asia, GCC and maritime corridors matter | Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Japan, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and seafarer/maritime centers appear as material disclosed source corridors. | Supports corridor segmentation beyond the US, especially ASEAN/GCC/maritime routes. | High | BSP Table 11 | Use region groups and confidence tiers in Corridor_Evidence. |
| Basis mismatch: cash vs personal remittances | BSP source-country data is cash remittance basis; WDI/total baseline is personal remittance basis. | Requires explicit limitation and reconciliation; country flows are allocation estimates. | High | BSP Table 11; World Bank WDI | Use BSP shares as proxy applied to personal-remittance TAM; disclose limitation. |
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Proj_Assumptions_26_31
| Philippines Projection Assumptions - 2026 to 2031 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low/base/high growth assumptions using 2025 provisional Philippines remittance anchor. Growth is moderated after resilient 2024/2025 record levels. | ||||
| Input | Value | Unit | Notes | Source / Linkage |
| Anchor Year (Provisional) | 2025 | Year | 2025 is WDI-like estimate until World Bank publishes Philippines current-US$ value. | Philippines_Total_YOY |
| Anchor Total | USD | Derived from 2024 WDI multiplied by BSP 2025 personal-remittance growth of +3.3%. | Philippines_Total_YOY!T5 | |
| Base Growth 2026 | 0.034 | % | Stable OFW/seafarer remittance base and continued global demand. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2027 | 0.033 | % | Steady corridor growth with mature remittance base. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2028 | 0.032 | % | Moderated mature-market growth. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2029 | 0.031 | % | Long-run remittance growth moderation. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2030 | 0.03 | % | Stable mature corridor growth. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2031 | 0.029 | % | Terminal pre-valuation steady-growth assumption. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Low Growth 2026 | 0.018 | % | Downside: destination-market slowdown or exchange/cost friction. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2027 | 0.018 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2028 | 0.017 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2029 | 0.017 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2030 | 0.016 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2031 | 0.016 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| High Growth 2026 | 0.047 | % | Upside: stronger deployment of OFWs/seafarers and digital channel growth. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2027 | 0.045 | % | Upside continuation. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2028 | 0.043 | % | Upside normalization. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2029 | 0.041 | % | Upside normalization. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2030 | 0.039 | % | Upside normalization. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2031 | 0.037 | % | Upside long-run growth. | Upside case |
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Total_Projection_26_31
| Philippines Total Remittance Projection - 2026 to 2031 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low/base/high projected Philippines remittance totals, linked to Proj_Assumptions_26_31. | ||||||||
| Scenario | 2025 Anchor (USD) | 2026 (USD) | 2027 (USD) | 2028 (USD) | 2029 (USD) | 2030 (USD) | 2031 (USD) | 2025-2031 CAGR |
| Low | ||||||||
| Base | ||||||||
| High | ||||||||
| YoY Growth (%) by Scenario | ||||||||
| Scenario | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | ||
| Low | ||||||||
| Base | ||||||||
| High |
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Country_Projection_26_31
| Philippines Country Projection - 2026 to 2031 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country-level low/base/high projections using 2025 reconciled source-country shares and total projection scenarios. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2025 Share (Reconciled) | 2026 Base (USD) | 2027 Base (USD) | 2028 Base (USD) | 2029 Base (USD) | 2030 Base (USD) | 2031 Base (USD) | 2026 Low (USD) |
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