Morocco YOY Remittances Growth
Sheets Included
SheetMorocco_Total_YOY
SheetCountry_Flows_2020_2025
SheetSources_Method
SheetCountry_Scenarios_2020_2025
SheetScenario_Summary
SheetCorridor_Evidence
SheetReconciled_Country_Flows
SheetDisclosure_Tracker
SheetYOY_Growth_Justification
SheetProj_Assumptions_26_31
SheetTotal_Projection_26_31
SheetCountry_Projection_26_31
Morocco_Total_YOY
| Morocco Remittances - Year over Year (Official Baseline) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator: Personal remittances, received (current US$). 2009-2024 from World Bank WDI; 2025 uses Office des Changes provisional MRE transfers of MAD 122.023bn converted to USD using stated FX assumption. | |||||||||
| Country Name | Country Code | Indicator Name | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Morocco | MAR | Personal remittances, received (current US$) | 6269117561 | 6422541530 | 7256310892 | 6507905288 | 6881699960 | 7788695018 | 6903543638 |
| YoY Growth % | Annual growth vs prior year | ||||||||
| Source Basis | Data source by year | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | |
| 2025 Morocco official/local-currency anchor | Office des Changes 2025 MRE transfers | 122023000000 | USD/MAD average assumption used | 9.3472 | Converted 2025 USD value | Note: 2025 USD is provisional until World Bank publishes WDI value. | |||
| Type | Source / Evidence | Link / Reference | Usage | ||||||
| Reference | World Bank WDI indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT for Morocco | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/MAR/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | Used for 2009-2024 current US$ remittance baseline; API last updated 2026-04-08. | ||||||
| Reference | Office des Changes - Indicator of foreign trade at end December 2025 | https://www.oc.gov.ma/en/publications-en/indicator-foreign-trade-end-december-2025 | Used for 2025 MRE transfers: MAD 122.023bn, provisional Office des Changes figure. | ||||||
| Reference | World Bank official exchange rate indicator PA.NUS.FCRF / 2025 FX assumption note | https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?locations=MA | World Bank 2025 FX may lag; workbook uses a documented 2025 average USD/MAD assumption of 9.3472 for conversion. | ||||||
| Method note | Scope alignment with Egypt workbook | Egypt YOY Remittances Growth.xlsx / Egypt_Total_YOY | Morocco_Total_YOY mirrors the Egypt first-tab structure but flags 2025 as provisional USD conversion. |
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Country_Flows_2020_2025
| Morocco Remittance Inflows by Source Country - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disclosure-weighted allocation model reconciled to Morocco_Total_YOY annual totals via Corridor_Evidence and Reconciled_Country_Flows. 2023 anchor uses OECD / Office des Changes data: France 31%, Spain 13%, Italy 9%, Western Europe ~62.3%. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Confidence Tier | Allocation Share 2025 | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$) |
| Annual Total Control | MAR | Control | |||||||
| France | FRA | A | |||||||
| Spain | ESP | A | |||||||
| Italy | ITA | A | |||||||
| Belgium | BEL | B | |||||||
| Netherlands | NLD | B | |||||||
| Germany | DEU | B | |||||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | C | |||||||
| United States | USA | C | |||||||
| Canada | CAN | C | |||||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | B | |||||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | B | |||||||
| Qatar | QAT | C | |||||||
| Kuwait | KWT | C | |||||||
| Bahrain | BHR | C | |||||||
| Oman | OMN | C | |||||||
| Portugal | PRT | C | |||||||
| Switzerland | CHE | C | |||||||
| Other Western Europe | OWE | C | |||||||
| Other GCC / MENA | OGM | C | |||||||
| Rest of World | ROW | C | |||||||
| Total Allocated |
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Sources_Method
| Morocco Remittance Model - Sources & Method | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence register and methodology notes for Morocco remittance total, country-flow allocation, and future projection/model tabs. | |||||
| Category | Source | Link / Reference | Usage in Workbook | Confidence | Key Limitation / Treatment |
| Official Morocco totals | World Bank WDI - Personal remittances, received (current US$), indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/MAR/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | Primary annual USD baseline for Morocco_Total_YOY from 2009-2024. | High | World Bank Morocco 2025 value is not yet populated; 2025 is handled separately. |
| Official/provisional 2025 Morocco total | Office des Changes - Indicator of foreign trade at end December 2025 | https://www.oc.gov.ma/en/publications-en/indicator-foreign-trade-end-december-2025 | 2025 MRE transfer local-currency anchor used to estimate provisional 2025 USD value. | High for MAD total; Medium for USD conversion | Office des Changes reports in MAD; USD value depends on FX conversion assumption until World Bank publishes current US$ value. |
| FX conversion for 2025 | World Bank official exchange rate indicator PA.NUS.FCRF / model FX assumption | https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?locations=MA | Provides FX methodology context for converting 2025 MAD remittance total to USD. | Medium | If final 2025 annual FX differs, Morocco_Total_YOY 2025 USD should be updated. |
| Country split anchor | OECD Economic Surveys: Morocco 2024, based on Office des Changes calculations | https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/09/oecd-economic-surveys-morocco-2024_d4786047/full-report/component-4.html | Anchors 2023 country split for France 31%, Spain 13%, Italy 9%. | High for named 2023 shares | Only a partial country split is disclosed; other countries require evidence-weighted allocation. |
| Regional split anchor | Oxford Handbook of the Moroccan Economy - external sector chapter | https://academic.oup.com/oa-edited-volume/62466/chapter/559627240 | Supports Western Europe share around 62.3% and diaspora concentration across France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, and Germany. | Medium-High | Academic/source chapter provides structural context, not a full annual country-by-country series. |
| Bilateral remittance methodology | World Bank / KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix methodology | https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/bilateral-remittance-matrix-new | Used as methodological support where direct bilateral Morocco disclosures are incomplete. | Medium | Bilateral matrices are estimates and may lag official totals; workbook reconciles flows to official Morocco annual totals. |
| Diaspora / corridor proxy | UN DESA international migrant stock | https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migrant-stock | Proxy support for source-country weighting where no direct remittance disclosure is available. | Medium | Migrant stock is not equal to remittance value; used only as a weighting proxy. |
| Country-flow allocation method | Workbook tab Country_Flows_2020_2025 | Internal workbook tab | Allocates annual totals across source countries and reconciles each year to Morocco_Total_YOY. | Model-derived | Country-level values are estimates unless directly disclosed; confidence tiers identify precision level. |
| Reconciliation control | Morocco_Total_YOY annual totals and Country_Flows_2020_2025 reconciliation row | Internal workbook formulas | Ensures allocated source-country flows equal annual Morocco totals for 2020-2025. | High | Reconciliation validates totals, not the exact source-country split. |
| Future enhancement | Direct official Moroccan or sender-country bilateral disclosures | Future source collection | To be added if Office des Changes, Bank Al-Maghrib, Spain, France, Italy, or EU sources disclose bilateral transfers. | Pending | Would improve precision and may change current allocation shares. |
| Methodology Summary | |||||
| Step | Method | Output | Control / Check | Investor Interpretation | Status |
| 1 | Pull official annual Morocco remittance totals from World Bank WDI for 2009-2024. | Historical USD baseline in Morocco_Total_YOY. | World Bank API source and year values retained. | Use as the official historical TAM trend baseline. | Complete |
| 2 | Add 2025 Morocco MRE transfer total from Office des Changes in MAD and convert to USD using stated FX assumption. | Provisional 2025 USD estimate in Morocco_Total_YOY. | 2025 source basis row flags Office des Changes + FX conversion. | Use 2025 as provisional until World Bank current-US$ value is available. | Complete |
| 3 | Anchor 2023 country mix to OECD / Office des Changes disclosed shares for France, Spain, and Italy. | High-confidence source-country anchors in Country_Flows_2020_2025. | France/Spain/Italy labelled Confidence Tier A. | Use these as primary corridors for Morocco-focused valuation logic. | Complete |
| 4 | Allocate undisclosed countries using regional/diaspora proxies and reconcile to annual totals. | Estimated source-country values for Europe, GCC/MENA, North America, and residual flows. | Total allocated and reconciliation-check rows included. | Use confidence tiers; do not present estimates as audited bilateral disclosures. | Complete |
| 5 | Future tabs should build scenarios, projections and valuation assumptions from these controlled totals and country-flow estimates. | Controlled input foundation for Morocco valuation module. | Every new tab should reference Sources_Method and reconcile to totals. | Keeps the Morocco model investor-defensible and auditable. | Next |
| Important note: The workbook separates official annual Morocco remittance totals from estimated country-level allocation. Country-flow figures are planning estimates unless directly disclosed; the model reconciles estimates to official/provisional totals and labels confidence tiers to protect investor interpretation. |
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Country_Scenarios_2020_2025
| Morocco Country Flow Scenarios - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside/base/upside scenario bands around estimated country-flow allocations. Base case links to Country_Flows_2020_2025; bands vary by confidence tier. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Confidence Tier | Band % | Scenario | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) |
| France | FRA | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| France | FRA | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| France | FRA | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Spain | ESP | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Spain | ESP | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Spain | ESP | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Italy | ITA | A | 0.1 | Downside | |||||
| Italy | ITA | A | 0.1 | Base | |||||
| Italy | ITA | A | 0.1 | Upside | |||||
| Belgium | BEL | B | 0.18 | Downside | |||||
| Belgium | BEL | B | 0.18 | Base | |||||
| Belgium | BEL | B | 0.18 | Upside | |||||
| Netherlands | NLD | B | 0.18 | Downside | |||||
| Netherlands | NLD | B | 0.18 | Base | |||||
| Netherlands | NLD | B | 0.18 | Upside | |||||
| Germany | DEU | B | 0.18 | Downside | |||||
| Germany | DEU | B | 0.18 | Base | |||||
| Germany | DEU | B | 0.18 | Upside | |||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | C | 0.28 | Downside | |||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | C | 0.28 | Base | |||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | C | 0.28 | Upside | |||||
| United States | USA | C | 0.28 | Downside | |||||
| United States | USA | C | 0.28 | Base | |||||
| United States | USA | C | 0.28 | Upside |
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Scenario_Summary
| Morocco Scenario Summary - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregated downside/base/upside view linked to Country_Scenarios_2020_2025. Use this tab as the executive scenario bridge before projections. | |||||||||
| Scenario | Band Logic | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$) | 2020-2025 CAGR | 2025 Share vs Base |
| Downside | Tier-adjusted lower corridor allocation: A -10%, B -18%, C -28% | ||||||||
| Base | Country_Flows_2020_2025 allocation reconciled to Morocco annual totals | ||||||||
| Upside | Tier-adjusted higher corridor allocation: A +10%, B +18%, C +28% | ||||||||
| Interpretation note: The base case intentionally reconciles to Morocco annual official/provisional totals. Downside and upside scenarios are not official totals; they represent uncertainty bands around corridor allocation and commercial monetisation potential. For valuation, use base as default and use downside/upside for sensitivity cases. |
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Corridor_Evidence
| Morocco Corridor Evidence Score - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence-weighted corridor scoring engine. Base score and annual adjustments produce weighted shares used by Reconciled_Country_Flows. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Region Group | Data Status | Primary Reference | Disclosure Notes | Base Evidence Score (0-1000) | 2020 Adj | 2021 Adj | 2022 Adj |
| France | FRA | Western Europe Core | Disclosed anchor | OECD 2024, based on Office des Changes 2023 origin shares | OECD / Office des Changes disclosed 2023 share; primary Morocco diaspora corridor | 315 | 1.047619047619048 | 1.015873015873016 | 1 |
| Spain | ESP | Western Europe Core | Disclosed anchor | OECD 2024, based on Office des Changes 2023 origin shares | OECD / Office des Changes disclosed 2023 share; strategic near-shore corridor | 130 | 0.923076923076923 | 0.9615384615384615 | 1 |
| Italy | ITA | Western Europe Core | Disclosed anchor | OECD 2024, based on Office des Changes 2023 origin shares | OECD / Office des Changes disclosed 2023 share; major Western Europe corridor | 88 | 1.079545454545455 | 1.045454545454545 | 1.022727272727273 |
| Belgium | BEL | Western Europe Long Tail | Regional proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | Western Europe diaspora concentration; residual allocation within 62.3% Europe anchor | 55 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Netherlands | NLD | Western Europe Long Tail | Regional proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | Western Europe diaspora concentration; residual allocation within 62.3% Europe anchor | 34 | 1.058823529411764 | 1.058823529411764 | 1.029411764705882 |
| Germany | DEU | Western Europe Long Tail | Regional proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | Western Europe diaspora concentration; residual allocation within 62.3% Europe anchor | 30 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | UK / OECD | Estimated proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | OECD / diaspora proxy; lower disclosed corridor confidence | 26 | 0.9615384615384617 | 1 | 1 |
| United States | USA | North America | Estimated proxy | Diaspora / high-income sender proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Diaspora and high-income source proxy; no direct annual disclosure found | 26 | 0.8461538461538461 | 0.8846153846153847 | 0.9230769230769231 |
| Canada | CAN | North America | Estimated proxy | Diaspora / high-income sender proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Diaspora and high-income source proxy; no direct annual disclosure found | 23 | 0.8260869565217391 | 0.8695652173913044 | 0.9130434782608696 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | GCC / MENA | Regional proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Gulf region proxy; Morocco sources identify Gulf as second source region after Europe | 36 | 0.888888888888889 | 0.9166666666666667 | 0.9444444444444445 |
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | GCC / MENA | Regional proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Gulf region proxy; Morocco sources identify Gulf as second source region after Europe | 34 | 0.8823529411764705 | 0.9117647058823529 | 0.9411764705882353 |
| Qatar | QAT | GCC / MENA | Estimated proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Gulf region proxy | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kuwait | KWT | GCC / MENA | Estimated proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Gulf region proxy | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bahrain | BHR | GCC / MENA | Estimated proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Gulf region proxy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oman | OMN | GCC / MENA | Estimated proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Gulf region proxy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Portugal | PRT | Western Europe Long Tail | Estimated proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | Iberia / EU proxy corridor | 11 | 0.9090909090909092 | 1 | 1 |
| Switzerland | CHE | Western Europe Long Tail | Estimated proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | Western Europe high-income proxy | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Other Western Europe | OWE | Western Europe Long Tail | Estimated proxy | OECD / Oxford Handbook Western Europe diaspora-remittance structure | Residual Western Europe and Nordic flows | 19 | 1.052631578947368 | 1.052631578947368 | 1 |
| Other GCC / MENA | OGM | GCC / MENA | Estimated proxy | GCC/MENA diaspora and corridor proxy; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Residual Gulf/MENA corridors | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rest of World | ROW | Residual / Global | Estimated proxy | Balancing residual allocation; reconcile to Morocco official totals | Balancing residual to reconcile country flows to annual Morocco total | 108 | 1.027777777777778 | 1.046296296296296 | 1.046296296296296 |
| Total Evidence Weight |
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Reconciled_Country_Flows
| Morocco Reconciled Country Flows - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transforms Corridor_Evidence weighted scores into source-country shares and values reconciled to Morocco_Total_YOY annual totals. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2020 Share | 2020 Value (US$) | 2021 Share | 2021 Value (US$) | 2022 Share | 2022 Value (US$) | 2023 Share | 2023 Value (US$) |
| France | FRA | ||||||||
| Spain | ESP | ||||||||
| Italy | ITA | ||||||||
| Belgium | BEL | ||||||||
| Netherlands | NLD | ||||||||
| Germany | DEU | ||||||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | ||||||||
| United States | USA | ||||||||
| Canada | CAN | ||||||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | ||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | ||||||||
| Qatar | QAT | ||||||||
| Kuwait | KWT | ||||||||
| Bahrain | BHR | ||||||||
| Oman | OMN | ||||||||
| Portugal | PRT | ||||||||
| Switzerland | CHE | ||||||||
| Other Western Europe | OWE | ||||||||
| Other GCC / MENA | OGM | ||||||||
| Rest of World | ROW | ||||||||
| Total / Reconciliation | |||||||||
| Annual Total Difference |
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Disclosure_Tracker
| Morocco Disclosure Tracker | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracks disclosure quality by source country and identifies which allocations are directly disclosed, partially supported, or model-estimated. | ||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Has Public Source-Country Disclosure? | Latest Year Found | Data Granularity | Directly Usable for Morocco Mapping? | Confidence Tier | Reference Basis | Action / Upgrade Needed |
| France | FRA | Yes / Disclosed anchor | 2023 | Country share of Morocco remittances | Directly usable as anchor | A | OECD 2024 based on Office des Changes data | Retain as Tier A; update when Office des Changes/OECD publishes newer origin split. |
| Spain | ESP | Yes / Disclosed anchor | 2023 | Country share of Morocco remittances | Directly usable as anchor | A | OECD 2024 based on Office des Changes data | Retain as Tier A; update when Office des Changes/OECD publishes newer origin split. |
| Italy | ITA | Yes / Disclosed anchor | 2023 | Country share of Morocco remittances | Directly usable as anchor | A | OECD 2024 based on Office des Changes data | Retain as Tier A; update when Office des Changes/OECD publishes newer origin split. |
| Belgium | BEL | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | B | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| Netherlands | NLD | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | B | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| Germany | DEU | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | B | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| United Kingdom | GBR | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | C | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| United States | USA | Limited | TBD | Diaspora/high-income proxy | Proxy only | C | Diaspora proxy + World Bank/KNOMAD methodology | Collect sender-country outward remittance data and migration stock updates. |
| Canada | CAN | Limited | TBD | Diaspora/high-income proxy | Proxy only | C | Diaspora proxy + World Bank/KNOMAD methodology | Collect sender-country outward remittance data and migration stock updates. |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | B | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | B | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Qatar | QAT | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | C | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Kuwait | KWT | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | C | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Bahrain | BHR | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | C | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Oman | OMN | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | C | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Portugal | PRT | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | C | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| Switzerland | CHE | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | C | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| Other Western Europe | OWE | Partial / Regional evidence | 2023 | Regional/diaspora proxy, not full bilateral annual series | Proxy / partial | C | OECD/Oxford Western Europe structure + diaspora proxy | Seek official bilateral transfer disclosure or sender-country payment statistics. |
| Other GCC / MENA | OGM | Limited | TBD | Regional/MENA proxy | Proxy only | C | GCC/MENA proxy; reconciled to Morocco official totals | Search sender-country central bank/payment statistics and MTO reports; update evidence score if found. |
| Rest of World | ROW | Residual | 2020-2025 | Balancing residual | No | C | Model residual after named corridors | Break down if new country disclosures become available. |
| Reference Notes | ||||||||
| Source | Link | Reason for Use |
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YOY_Growth_Justification
| Morocco YoY Growth Justification | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Explains the observed 2020-2025 Morocco remittance growth pattern and how it should be interpreted in future projections. | |||||
| Topic | Explicit Justification | How It Affects YoY / Projection Logic | Evidence Strength | Citation / Evidence | Model Treatment |
| COVID-era resilience and 2021 rebound | World Bank reported remittance resilience during COVID-19 and a strong 2021 rebound; Maghreb receipts were supported by Euro Area recovery. Morocco benefited from the same diaspora support dynamic. | Explains why Morocco shows a sharp step-up from 2020 to 2021 rather than a prolonged collapse. Future projection should not repeat the same one-off rebound mechanically. | High | World Bank 2021 remittance press releases; World Bank Morocco remittance series | Treat 2021 as rebound/normalization year; use moderated growth afterward. |
| Large and concentrated Moroccan diaspora | OECD notes remittances play a key role in Morocco and that France, Spain and Italy represented about 31%, 13% and 9% of 2023 remittance origins. | Supports a stable, Europe-led corridor base with persistent flows from high-income host countries. | High | OECD Economic Surveys: Morocco 2024, based on Office des Changes data | Use France/Spain/Italy as Tier A corridor anchors. |
| Western Europe structural anchor | External sector analysis indicates Western Europe accounted for around 62.3% of Morocco remittance flows in 2023, consistent with the diaspora concentration in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany. | Supports assigning the majority of country-flow weight to Western Europe and keeping volatility lower than purely model-estimated corridors. | Medium-High | Oxford Handbook of the Moroccan Economy; OECD Morocco 2024 | Use regional evidence to support Tier B Western Europe allocations. |
| Record 2024 and continued 2025 strength | Public Office des Changes / Maroc.ma releases point to record 2024 MRE remittances and 2025 transfer receipts around MAD 122bn. | Supports continued high absolute remittance base into 2025, but with slower growth than the 2021 rebound. | High for local-currency totals; Medium for USD conversion | Office des Changes 2025 indicator; Maroc.ma 2024 record release | Use 2025 as provisional USD conversion until World Bank publishes current-US$ value. |
| FX translation effect | Morocco_Total_YOY is in USD, while Office des Changes reports MRE transfers in MAD. YoY in USD may differ from YoY in MAD due to exchange-rate translation. | Prevents over-interpreting 2024-2025 USD movement; investor narrative should distinguish local-currency flow growth from USD-converted growth. | Medium | World Bank FX indicator and workbook FX assumption | Flag 2025 USD value as provisional and maintain FX assumption cell/note. |
| Formal channels and financial inclusion initiatives | World Bank Greenback work highlights remittance market efficiency, cost reduction, and recipient behavior as important policy themes in Morocco. | Supports long-term digitization/efficiency potential, but it is not direct proof of immediate transaction capture for the SNPL model. | Medium | World Bank Greenback Initiative Morocco findings | Use as qualitative support, not a direct market-share uplift. |
| Country-flow uncertainty | Only selected country-origin shares are directly disclosed; other corridors rely on regional/diaspora proxies and reconciliation to official annual totals. | Requires scenario bands and confidence tiers rather than a single false-precision country allocation. | High | Disclosure_Tracker and Reconciled_Country_Flows tabs | Use downside/base/upside scenario tabs and tiered bands. |
| Reference URLs | |||||
| 1) World Bank 2021 remittance resilience: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/11/17/remittance-flows-register-robust-7-3-percent-growth-in-2021 | |||||
| 2) World Bank COVID remittance resilience: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/05/12/defying-predictions-remittance-flows-remain-strong-during-covid-19-crisis | |||||
| 3) OECD Morocco 2024: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/09/oecd-economic-surveys-morocco-2024_d4786047/full-report/component-4.html | |||||
| 4) Office des Changes 2025 indicator: https://www.oc.gov.ma/en/publications-en/indicator-foreign-trade-end-december-2025 | |||||
| 5) World Bank Morocco remittance API: https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/MAR/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | |||||
| 6) World Bank Greenback Initiative Morocco: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/06/30/remittance-recipients-findings-on-the-greenback-initiative-in-morocco |
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Proj_Assumptions_26_31
| Morocco Projection Assumptions - 2026 to 2031 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low/base/high growth assumptions using 2025 provisional Morocco USD remittance anchor. Growth is moderated after the 2021 rebound and 2024/2025 record base. | ||||
| Input | Value | Unit | Notes | Source / Linkage |
| Anchor Year (Provisional) | 2025 | Year | 2025 is provisional USD conversion until World Bank publishes Morocco current-US$ value. | Morocco_Total_YOY |
| Anchor Total | USD | Derived from Office des Changes MAD 122.023bn / stated FX assumption. | Morocco_Total_YOY!T5 | |
| Base Growth 2026 | 0.04 | % | Moderated growth from record 2025 base; Morocco remittances remain structurally resilient. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2027 | 0.038 | % | Stable diaspora and Europe-led corridor growth. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2028 | 0.036 | % | Gradual normalization after 2024/2025 record levels. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2029 | 0.034 | % | Slightly tapering mature corridor growth. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2030 | 0.032 | % | Long-run remittance growth moderation. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2031 | 0.03 | % | Terminal pre-valuation steady-growth assumption. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Low Growth 2026 | 0.018 | % | Conservative case: FX translation, weaker Euro Area growth or lower formal-channel growth. | Scenario / downside |
| Low Growth 2027 | 0.018 | % | Conservative sustained lower corridor expansion. | Scenario / downside |
| Low Growth 2028 | 0.02 | % | Modest recovery but still below base. | Scenario / downside |
| Low Growth 2029 | 0.02 | % | Low case long-run growth. | Scenario / downside |
| Low Growth 2030 | 0.02 | % | Low case long-run growth. | Scenario / downside |
| Low Growth 2031 | 0.02 | % | Low case long-run growth. | Scenario / downside |
| High Growth 2026 | 0.065 | % | Upside case: stronger formal-channel capture, diaspora income, and digital/MTO corridor efficiency. | Scenario / upside |
| High Growth 2027 | 0.06 | % | Upside sustained growth. | Scenario / upside |
| High Growth 2028 | 0.055 | % | Upside normalization at still-high growth. | Scenario / upside |
| High Growth 2029 | 0.05 | % | Upside long-run moderation. | Scenario / upside |
| High Growth 2030 | 0.045 | % | Upside long-run moderation. | Scenario / upside |
| High Growth 2031 | 0.04 | % | Upside terminal growth. | Scenario / upside |
| Projection Method | Scenario compound growth | Text | Low/Base/High totals compound from 2025 anchor, then country projections use 2025 reconciled source-country shares. | Total_Projection_26_31 / Country_Projection_26_31 |
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Total_Projection_26_31
| Morocco Total Remittance Projection - 2026 to 2031 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low/base/high projected Morocco remittance totals, linked to Proj_Assumptions_26_31. | |||||||||
| Scenario | 2025 Anchor (USD) | 2026 (USD) | 2027 (USD) | 2028 (USD) | 2029 (USD) | 2030 (USD) | 2031 (USD) | 2025-2031 CAGR | |
| Low | |||||||||
| Base | |||||||||
| High | |||||||||
| YoY Growth (%) by Scenario | |||||||||
| Scenario | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | |||
| Low | |||||||||
| Base | |||||||||
| High |
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Country_Projection_26_31
| Morocco Country Projection - 2026 to 2031 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country-level low/base/high projections using 2025 reconciled source-country shares and total projection scenarios. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2025 Share (Reconciled) | 2026 Base (USD) | 2027 Base (USD) | 2028 Base (USD) | 2029 Base (USD) | 2030 Base (USD) | 2031 Base (USD) | 2026 Low (USD) |
| Total | |||||||||
| Reconciliation Check |
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