Indonesia YOY Remittances Growth
Sheets Included
SheetIndonesia_Total_YOY
SheetCountry_Flows_2020_2025
SheetSources_Method
SheetCountry_Scenarios_2020_2025
SheetScenario_Summary
SheetCorridor_Evidence
SheetReconciled_Country_Flows
SheetDisclosure_Tracker
SheetYOY_Growth_Justification
SheetProj_Assumptions_26_31
SheetTotal_Projection_26_31
SheetCountry_Projection_26_31
Indonesia_Total_YOY
| Indonesia Remittances - Year over Year (Official Baseline) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator: Personal remittances, received (current US$). 2009-2024 from World Bank WDI; 2025 uses a provisional growth-rate bridge based on Bank Indonesia-cited +14% migrant-worker remittance growth. | |||||||||
| Country Name | Country Code | Indicator Name | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Indonesia | IDN | Personal remittances, received (current US$) | 6792907280.44703 | 6916051073.08896 | 6923970511.39839 | 7212196577.5592 | 7614419340.02844 | 8551164468.84294 | 9659168638.94442 |
| YoY Growth % | Annual growth vs prior year | ||||||||
| Source Basis | Data source by year | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | World Bank WDI | |
| 2025 Indonesia provisional anchors | BI-cited 2024 migrant remittance value (IDR) | 253000000000000 | BI-cited 2025 migrant remittance value (IDR) | 288000000000000 | Growth used | 0.14 | Model 2025 WDI-like value | ||
| Source Register | |||||||||
| Type | Source / Evidence | Link / Reference | Usage | Confidence | Limitation / Treatment | ||||
| Official Indonesia totals | World Bank WDI - Personal remittances, received (current US$), indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | Primary annual USD baseline for 2009-2024 | High | World Bank WDI 2025 value is not populated at build date. | ||||
| 2025 growth anchor | Bank Indonesia data cited by government migrant worker protection minister / Migrant Times: Rp288tn in 2025 vs Rp253tn in 2024, +14% | https://migrantimes.com/remittance-finance/02-03-2026/indonesian-migrant-workers-sent-home-record-rp288-trillion-in-2025 | Used as growth-rate bridge to estimate 2025 WDI-like personal remittance total | Medium | IDR migrant-worker remittance basis differs from WDI personal remittance current-US$ basis. | ||||
| Country split anchor | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 - Remittances of Indonesian Migrant Workers by Host Country | https://www.bi.go.id/SEKI/tabel/TABEL5_31.pdf | Primary host-country allocation proxy for migrant-worker remittances | Medium-High | Host-country worker remittance table is not identical to WDI personal remittance total. | ||||
| 2025 source narrative | BNI remittance business note citing Taiwan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and South Korea as main sources | https://www.bni.co.id/en-us/home/bni-news/news/articleid/24851/as-indonesian-migrant-workers-main-partner-bni-recorded-13-15-remittance-business-growth-in-q1-2025 | Supports confidence tiers and current main-source countries | Medium | Bank-specific source narrative, not full official national table. | ||||
| Country-flow allocation method | Workbook tabs Corridor_Evidence and Reconciled_Country_Flows | Internal workbook tabs | Allocates annual totals across source countries and reconciles each year to Indonesia_Total_YOY | Model-derived | Country-level values are estimates on personal-remittance basis unless directly disclosed. |
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Country_Flows_2020_2025
| Indonesia Remittance Inflows by Source Country - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disclosure-weighted allocation model reconciled to Indonesia_Total_YOY annual totals using Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 as host-country worker-remittance proxy. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Confidence Tier | Allocation Share 2025 | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$) |
| Annual Total Control | IDN | Control | |||||||
| Malaysia | MYS | A | |||||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | |||||||
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | A | |||||||
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | A | |||||||
| Singapore | SGP | B | |||||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | B | |||||||
| Japan | JPN | B | |||||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | B | |||||||
| Jordan | JOR | B | |||||||
| Kuwait | KWT | B | |||||||
| Qatar | QAT | C | |||||||
| Oman | OMN | C | |||||||
| Brunei Darussalam | BRN | C | |||||||
| Italy | ITA | C | |||||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | C | |||||||
| Germany | DEU | C | |||||||
| Australia | AUS | C | |||||||
| United States / Americas | USA | C | |||||||
| Other ASEAN | OASEAN | C | |||||||
| Other Middle East | OME | C | |||||||
| Other Europe | OEU | C | |||||||
| Rest of World | ROW | C |
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Sources_Method
| Indonesia Remittance Model - Sources & Method | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence register and methodology notes for Indonesia remittance total, country-flow allocation, and future projection/model tabs. | |||||
| Category | Source | Link / Reference | Usage in Workbook | Confidence | Key Limitation / Treatment |
| Official Indonesia totals | World Bank WDI - Personal remittances, received (current US$), indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT | https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?format=json&per_page=100&date=2009:2025 | Primary annual USD baseline for Indonesia_Total_YOY from 2009-2024. | High | World Bank Indonesia 2025 value is not yet populated; 2025 is handled separately. |
| 2025 growth anchor | Bank Indonesia data cited by Migrant Times / government minister, Rp288tn 2025 vs Rp253tn 2024 | https://migrantimes.com/remittance-finance/02-03-2026/indonesian-migrant-workers-sent-home-record-rp288-trillion-in-2025 | Applies +14% growth to 2024 WDI to estimate WDI-like 2025 total. | Medium | IDR migrant-worker basis differs from WDI current-US$ personal remittance basis. |
| Country split anchor | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 - Remittances of Indonesian Migrant Workers by Host Country | https://www.bi.go.id/SEKI/tabel/TABEL5_31.pdf | Anchors relative host-country allocation and confidence tiers. | Medium-High | Worker-remittance host-country basis, not full personal remittance country-origin basis. |
| Current main-source support | BNI Q1-2025 remittance business note | https://www.bni.co.id/en-us/home/bni-news/news/articleid/24851/as-indonesian-migrant-workers-main-partner-bni-recorded-13-15-remittance-business-growth-in-q1-2025 | Supports Taiwan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and South Korea as main sources. | Medium | Bank-specific narrative; use as corroboration only. |
| Country-flow allocation method | Workbook tabs Country_Flows_2020_2025, Corridor_Evidence and Reconciled_Country_Flows | Internal workbook tabs | Allocates annual totals across source countries and reconciles each year to Indonesia_Total_YOY. | Model-derived | Country-level values are estimates unless directly disclosed; confidence tiers identify precision level. |
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Country_Scenarios_2020_2025
| Indonesia Country Flow Scenarios - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside/base/upside scenario bands around estimated country-flow allocations. Base case links to Country_Flows_2020_2025; bands vary by confidence tier. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Confidence Tier | Band % | Scenario | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) |
| Malaysia | MYS | A | 0.12 | Downside | |||||
| Malaysia | MYS | A | 0.12 | Base | |||||
| Malaysia | MYS | A | 0.12 | Upside | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | 0.12 | Downside | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | 0.12 | Base | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | A | 0.12 | Upside | |||||
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | A | 0.12 | Downside | |||||
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | A | 0.12 | Base | |||||
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | A | 0.12 | Upside | |||||
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | A | 0.12 | Downside | |||||
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | A | 0.12 | Base | |||||
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | A | 0.12 | Upside | |||||
| Singapore | SGP | B | 0.22 | Downside | |||||
| Singapore | SGP | B | 0.22 | Base | |||||
| Singapore | SGP | B | 0.22 | Upside | |||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | B | 0.22 | Downside | |||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | B | 0.22 | Base | |||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | B | 0.22 | Upside | |||||
| Japan | JPN | B | 0.22 | Downside | |||||
| Japan | JPN | B | 0.22 | Base | |||||
| Japan | JPN | B | 0.22 | Upside | |||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | B | 0.22 | Downside | |||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | B | 0.22 | Base | |||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | B | 0.22 | Upside |
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Scenario_Summary
| Indonesia Scenario Summary - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregated downside/base/upside view linked to Country_Scenarios_2020_2025. Use this tab as the executive scenario bridge before projections. | |||||||||
| Scenario | Band Logic | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$) | 2020-2025 CAGR | 2025 Share vs Base |
| Downside | Tier-adjusted lower corridor allocation: A -12%, B -22%, C -35% | ||||||||
| Base | Country_Flows_2020_2025 allocation reconciled to Indonesia annual totals | ||||||||
| Upside | Tier-adjusted higher corridor allocation: A +12%, B +22%, C +35% | ||||||||
| Interpretation note: The base case reconciles to Indonesia annual official/provisional totals. Downside/upside scenarios show allocation and commercial uncertainty bands, not official totals. |
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Corridor_Evidence
| Indonesia Corridor Evidence Score - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evidence-weighted corridor scoring engine. Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 host-country worker-remittance proxy is reconciled to annual WDI-style personal-remittance totals. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Region Group | Data Status | Primary Reference | Disclosure Notes | Base Evidence Score (0-1000) | 2020 Adj | 2021 Adj | 2022 Adj |
| Malaysia | MYS | ASEAN Core | BI V.31 proxy / main source | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Largest ASEAN worker corridor; repeatedly cited among main sources | 340.1020306091829 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 1.02 |
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | Middle East Core | BI V.31 proxy / main source | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Largest Middle East corridor and core Indonesian migrant-worker destination | 300.0900270081025 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.96 |
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | Advanced Asia | BI V.31 proxy / main source | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Major Asian worker corridor, cited among main remittance sources | 125.0375112533761 | 0.88 | 0.9 | 0.98 |
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | Advanced Asia | BI V.31 proxy / main source | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Major domestic-worker/services corridor, cited among main sources | 117.03511053316 | 0.88 | 0.9 | 0.98 |
| Singapore | SGP | ASEAN Core | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | ASEAN remittance and financial hub corridor | 30.00900270081025 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 1.02 |
| Korea (South) | KOR | Advanced Asia | BI V.31 proxy / main source | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Advanced Asia worker corridor, cited among main sources | 16.00480144043214 | 0.88 | 0.9 | 0.98 |
| Japan | JPN | Advanced Asia | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | High-income placement and skills corridor | 12.0036010803241 | 0.88 | 0.9 | 0.98 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | Middle East Core | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | GCC corridor with exchange-house partnership relevance | 11.00330099029709 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.96 |
| Jordan | JOR | Middle East Adjacent | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Middle East worker corridor | 14.00420126037812 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.96 |
| Kuwait | KWT | Middle East Core | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small GCC corridor | 4.001200360108034 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.96 |
| Qatar | QAT | Middle East Core | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small GCC corridor | 1.000300090027008 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.96 |
| Oman | OMN | Middle East Core | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small GCC corridor | 1.000300090027008 | 0.82 | 0.8 | 0.96 |
| Brunei Darussalam | BRN | ASEAN Adjacent | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small ASEAN worker corridor | 2.500750225067521 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 1.02 |
| Italy | ITA | Europe / OECD | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small European corridor | 3.000900270081025 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | Europe / OECD | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small European corridor | 1.700510153045914 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Germany | DEU | Europe / OECD | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small European corridor | 0.5001500450135042 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Australia | AUS | Oceania | BI V.31 proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Small Oceania corridor | 0.7002100630189059 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| United States / Americas | USA | Americas Proxy | Limited proxy | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 regional Americas row; World Bank/KNOMAD methodology | Small in BI worker-remittance table; high correspondent/other-transfer uncertainty | 0.3000900270081025 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Other ASEAN | OASEAN | Residual | Model residual | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 residual rows | Residual ASEAN countries not separately modeled | 0.8002400720216067 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Other Middle East | OME | Residual | Model residual | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 residual rows | Residual Middle East countries not separately modeled | 0.8002400720216067 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Other Europe | OEU | Residual | Model residual | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 residual rows | Residual Europe countries not separately modeled | 3.501050315094529 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Rest of World | ROW | Residual Long Tail | Model residual | World Bank/KNOMAD methodology + residual balancing | Long-tail countries and unexplained gap between worker-remittance allocation and WDI personal remittance total | 14.90447134140243 | 0.9 | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Total Evidence Weight | ALL | Annual weighted score denominator |
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Reconciled_Country_Flows
| Indonesia Reconciled Country Flows - 2020 to 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transforms Corridor_Evidence weighted scores into source-country shares and values reconciled to Indonesia_Total_YOY annual totals. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2020 Share | 2020 Value (US$) | 2021 Share | 2021 Value (US$) | 2022 Share | 2022 Value (US$) | 2023 Share | 2023 Value (US$) |
| Malaysia | MYS | ||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | ||||||||
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | ||||||||
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | ||||||||
| Singapore | SGP | ||||||||
| Korea (South) | KOR | ||||||||
| Japan | JPN | ||||||||
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | ||||||||
| Jordan | JOR | ||||||||
| Kuwait | KWT | ||||||||
| Qatar | QAT | ||||||||
| Oman | OMN | ||||||||
| Brunei Darussalam | BRN | ||||||||
| Italy | ITA | ||||||||
| United Kingdom | GBR | ||||||||
| Germany | DEU | ||||||||
| Australia | AUS | ||||||||
| United States / Americas | USA | ||||||||
| Other ASEAN | OASEAN | ||||||||
| Other Middle East | OME | ||||||||
| Other Europe | OEU | ||||||||
| Rest of World | ROW | ||||||||
| Total | ALL |
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Disclosure_Tracker
| Indonesia Disclosure Tracker | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracks disclosure quality by source country and identifies which allocations are directly disclosed, partially supported, or model-estimated. | ||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | Has Public Source-Country Disclosure? | Latest Year Found | Data Granularity | Directly Usable for Indonesia Mapping? | Confidence Tier | Reference Basis | Action / Upgrade Needed |
| Malaysia | MYS | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | A | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | A | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Taiwan, Province of China | TWN | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | A | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Hong Kong SAR | HKG | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | A | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Singapore | SGP | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | B | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Korea (South) | KOR | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | B | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 main-source narrative | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Japan | JPN | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | B | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | B | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Jordan | JOR | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | B | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Kuwait | KWT | Host-country worker-remittance proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Proxy usable for allocation; reconcile to WDI personal-remittance total | B | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Qatar | QAT | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Oman | OMN | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Brunei Darussalam | BRN | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Italy | ITA | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| United Kingdom | GBR | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Germany | DEU | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Australia | AUS | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| United States / Americas | USA | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 regional Americas row; World Bank/KNOMAD methodology | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Other ASEAN | OASEAN | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 residual rows | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Other Middle East | OME | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 residual rows | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Other Europe | OEU | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 residual rows | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
| Rest of World | ROW | Limited / residual proxy | Latest SEKI / 2025 narrative | Worker-remittance by host country or residual proxy | Residual/proxy only | C | World Bank/KNOMAD methodology + residual balancing | Update with full BI annual country table and any WDI/KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix refresh. |
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YOY_Growth_Justification
| Indonesia YoY Growth Justification | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Explains the observed 2020-2025 Indonesia remittance growth pattern and how it should be interpreted in future projections. | |||||
| Topic | Explicit Justification | How It Affects YoY / Projection Logic | Evidence Strength | Citation / Evidence | Model Treatment |
| COVID contraction and reopening rebound | World Bank WDI shows Indonesia remittances fell in 2020-2021, then jumped strongly in 2022-2024 as worker mobility and placements normalized. | Explains sharp 2022 rebound and prevents treating that rebound as a permanently repeatable rate. | High | World Bank WDI IDN personal remittance series | Use moderated forward growth after 2025. |
| 2025 record migrant-worker remittance narrative | Bank Indonesia data cited by government officials indicates migrant-worker remittances rose from Rp253tn in 2024 to Rp288tn in 2025, around +14%. | Supports a provisional 2025 growth-rate bridge, but not a final WDI calendar-year value. | Medium | Migrant Times report citing Bank Indonesia/government minister | Apply +14% growth to 2024 WDI; flag as provisional. |
| Concentrated worker-remittance corridors | Bank Indonesia SEKI Table V.31 and BNI 2025 narrative point to Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea as major sources. | Supports corridor concentration around ASEAN, Middle East and Advanced Asia destinations. | Medium-High | BI SEKI Table V.31; BNI 2025 note | Use as Tier A/B evidence for country-flow allocation. |
| Basis mismatch: worker remittance vs personal remittance | BI V.31 is worker-remittance by host country; WDI is personal remittances received. | Requires explicit limitation and reconciliation; country flows are allocation estimates, not audited WDI bilateral values. | High | Bank Indonesia SEKI; World Bank WDI | Use BI host-country distribution as proxy applied to personal-remittance TAM. |
| Policy focus on higher-skilled placements | Government initiatives such as SMK Go Global aim to increase higher-skilled overseas placements. | Potentially supports future remittance growth and corridor diversification, but not guaranteed transaction capture. | Medium | Migrant Times / government policy narrative | Use qualitatively in projections; no direct valuation uplift in YOY workbook. |
| Country-flow uncertainty | Direct country-by-country personal-remittance data is not publicly complete for 2025. | Requires wider scenario bands than India/Philippines where source disclosures are stronger. | High | Disclosure_Tracker and Reconciled_Country_Flows tabs | Use wider A/B/C uncertainty bands. |
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Proj_Assumptions_26_31
| Indonesia Projection Assumptions - 2026 to 2031 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low/base/high growth assumptions using 2025 provisional Indonesia remittance anchor. Growth is moderated after post-pandemic recovery and 2025 record narrative. | ||||
| Input | Value | Unit | Notes | Source / Linkage |
| Anchor Year (Provisional) | 2025 | Year | 2025 is WDI-like estimate until World Bank publishes Indonesia current-US$ value. | Indonesia_Total_YOY |
| Anchor Total | USD | Derived from 2024 WDI multiplied by BI-cited 2025 migrant-remittance growth of +14%. | Indonesia_Total_YOY!T5 | |
| Base Growth 2026 | 0.05 | % | Growth moderates after 2025 record and placement recovery. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2027 | 0.047 | % | Continued worker placement expansion but from a larger base. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2028 | 0.044 | % | Gradual normalization after rebound phase. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2029 | 0.041 | % | Mature corridor growth moderation. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2030 | 0.039 | % | Stable long-run remittance growth. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Base Growth 2031 | 0.037 | % | Terminal pre-valuation steady-growth assumption. | YOY_Growth_Justification |
| Low Growth 2026 | 0.025 | % | Downside: placement slowdown, FX, host-country restrictions. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2027 | 0.024 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2028 | 0.023 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2029 | 0.022 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2030 | 0.021 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| Low Growth 2031 | 0.02 | % | Downside continuation. | Risk case |
| High Growth 2026 | 0.07 | % | Upside: higher-skilled placement expansion and stronger formal channel adoption. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2027 | 0.066 | % | Upside continuation. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2028 | 0.062 | % | Upside normalization. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2029 | 0.058 | % | Upside normalization. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2030 | 0.054 | % | Upside normalization. | Upside case |
| High Growth 2031 | 0.05 | % | Upside long-run growth. | Upside case |
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Total_Projection_26_31
| Indonesia Total Remittance Projection - 2026 to 2031 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low/base/high projected Indonesia remittance totals, linked to Proj_Assumptions_26_31. | ||||||||
| Scenario | 2025 Anchor (USD) | 2026 (USD) | 2027 (USD) | 2028 (USD) | 2029 (USD) | 2030 (USD) | 2031 (USD) | 2025-2031 CAGR |
| Low | ||||||||
| Base | ||||||||
| High | ||||||||
| YoY Growth (%) by Scenario | ||||||||
| Scenario | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | ||
| Low | ||||||||
| Base | ||||||||
| High |
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Country_Projection_26_31
| Indonesia Country Projection - 2026 to 2031 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country-level low/base/high projections using 2025 reconciled source-country shares and total projection scenarios. | |||||||||
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2025 Share (Reconciled) | 2026 Base (USD) | 2027 Base (USD) | 2028 Base (USD) | 2029 Base (USD) | 2030 Base (USD) | 2031 Base (USD) | 2026 Low (USD) |
| Total | ALL |
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