Egypt YOY Remittances Growth
Sheets Included
SheetEgypt_Total_YOY
SheetCountry_Flows_2020_2025
SheetSources_Method
SheetCountry_Scenarios_2020_2025
SheetScenario_Summary
SheetCorridor_Evidence
SheetReconciled_Country_Flows
SheetDisclosure_Tracker
SheetYOY_Growth_Justification
SheetProj_Assumptions_26_31
SheetTotal_Projection_26_31
SheetCountry_Projection_26_31
Egypt_Total_YOY
| Egypt Remittances - Year over Year (Official Baseline) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator: Personal remittances, received (current US$) | 2025 aligned to official CBE annual total (USD 41.5bn). | |||||||||
| Country Name | Country Code | Indicator Name | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
| Egypt, Arab Rep. | EGY | Personal remittances, received (current US$) | 7149600000 | 12453100000 | 14324300000 | 19236400000 | 17833100000 | 19570400000 | 18325400000 |
| 0.7417897504755511 | 0.15025977467457907 | 0.3429207709975357 | -0.07295024016967833 | 0.097419966242549 | -0.06361648203409231 | ||||
| Reference: | |||||||||
| - World Bank indicator BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT (Egypt). | |||||||||
| - CBE official 2025 release: USD 41.5 billion remittances from Egyptians working abroad. |
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Country_Flows_2020_2025
| Source Country | ISO3 | Allocation Share | 2020 (US$) | 2021 (US$) | 2022 (US$) | 2023 (US$) | 2024 (US$) | 2025 (US$, Official CBE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | 0.13157894736842105 | 3895118421.0526314 | 4143026315.7894726 | 3727999999.9999957 | 2570013157.8947334 | 3889355263.1578937 | 5460526315.78947 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | 0.12188365650969529 | 3608109695.2908587 | 3837750692.5207744 | 3453305263.1578913 | 2380643767.313016 | 3602771191.135733 | 5058171745.152351 |
| Kuwait | KWT | 0.0997229916897507 | 2952089750.692521 | 3139977839.3351793 | 2825431578.9473658 | 1947799445.983377 | 2947721883.6565084 | 4138504155.1246514 |
| Qatar | QAT | 0.08033240997229917 | 2378072299.168975 | 2529426592.7977834 | 2276042105.2631555 | 1569060664.8199425 | 2374553739.612188 | 3333795013.850414 |
| Oman | OMN | 0.06371191135734072 | 1886057340.7202218 | 2006096952.908587 | 1805136842.1052613 | 1244427423.8227131 | 1883266759.0027692 | 2644044321.3296385 |
| Bahrain | BHR | 0.0443213296398892 | 1312039889.196676 | 1395545706.3711908 | 1255747368.4210513 | 865688642.6592785 | 1310098614.9584484 | 1839335180.0554006 |
| Jordan | JOR | 0.05263157894736842 | 1558047368.4210525 | 1657210526.315789 | 1491199999.9999986 | 1028005263.1578933 | 1555742105.2631576 | 2184210526.3157883 |
| United States | USA | 0.060941828254847646 | 1804054847.6454294 | 1918875346.2603872 | 1726652631.5789456 | 1190321883.656508 | 1801385595.5678666 | 2529085872.5761757 |
| Italy | ITA | 0.0332409972299169 | 984029916.897507 | 1046659279.7783931 | 941810526.3157885 | 649266481.9944589 | 982573961.2188362 | 1379501385.0415504 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | 0.036011080332409975 | 1066032409.9722992 | 1133880886.4265924 | 1020294736.8421042 | 703372022.1606638 | 1064455124.6537393 | 1494459833.7950127 |
| Germany | DEU | 0.02631578947368421 | 779023684.2105262 | 828605263.1578945 | 745599999.9999993 | 514002631.57894665 | 777871052.6315788 | 1092105263.1578941 |
| France | FRA | 0.02077562326869806 | 615018698.0609418 | 654162049.8614956 | 588631578.9473678 | 405791551.24653685 | 614108725.7617726 | 862188365.650969 |
| Canada | CAN | 0.019390581717451522 | 574017451.5235456 | 610551246.537396 | 549389473.68421 | 378738781.1634343 | 573168144.0443212 | 804709141.2742378 |
| Greece | GRC | 0.013850415512465374 | 410012465.3739612 | 436108033.24099714 | 392421052.63157856 | 270527700.8310245 | 409405817.17451507 | 574792243.7673128 |
| Spain | ESP | 0.0110803324099723 | 328009972.299169 | 348886426.5927977 | 313936842.1052628 | 216422160.66481963 | 327524653.7396121 | 459833795.01385015 |
| Netherlands | NLD | 0.009695290858725761 | 287008725.7617728 | 305275623.268698 | 274694736.842105 | 189369390.58171716 | 286584072.0221606 | 402354570.6371189 |
| Belgium | BEL | 0.008310249307479225 | 246007479.22437674 | 261664819.9445983 | 235452631.57894713 | 162316620.49861473 | 245643490.30470905 | 344875346.2603876 |
| Switzerland | CHE | 0.009695290858725761 | 287008725.7617728 | 305275623.268698 | 274694736.842105 | 189369390.58171716 | 286584072.0221606 | 402354570.6371189 |
| Austria | AUT | 0.006925207756232687 | 205006232.6869806 | 218054016.62049857 | 196210526.31578928 | 135263850.41551226 | 204702908.58725753 | 287396121.8836564 |
| Sweden | SWE | 0.00554016620498615 | 164004986.1495845 | 174443213.29639885 | 156968421.0526314 | 108211080.33240981 | 163762326.86980605 | 229916897.50692508 |
| Norway | NOR | 0.004155124653739612 | 123003739.61218837 | 130832409.97229914 | 117726315.78947356 | 81158310.24930736 | 122821745.15235452 | 172437673.1301938 |
| Denmark | DNK | 0.004155124653739612 | 123003739.61218837 | 130832409.97229914 | 117726315.78947356 | 81158310.24930736 | 122821745.15235452 | 172437673.1301938 |
| Ireland | IRL | 0.004155124653739612 | 123003739.61218837 | 130832409.97229914 | 117726315.78947356 | 81158310.24930736 | 122821745.15235452 | 172437673.1301938 |
| Portugal | PRT | 0.00554016620498615 | 164004986.1495845 | 174443213.29639885 | 156968421.0526314 | 108211080.33240981 | 163762326.86980605 | 229916897.50692508 |
| Australia | AUS | 0.006925207756232687 | 205006232.6869806 | 218054016.62049857 | 196210526.31578928 | 135263850.41551226 | 204702908.58725753 | 287396121.8836564 |
| New Zealand | NZL | 0.002770083102493075 | 82002493.07479225 | 87221606.64819942 | 78484210.5263157 | 54105540.16620491 | 81881163.43490303 | 114958448.75346254 |
| Japan | JPN | 0.00554016620498615 | 164004986.1495845 | 174443213.29639885 | 156968421.0526314 | 108211080.33240981 | 163762326.86980605 | 229916897.50692508 |
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Sources_Method
| Category | Source | Link / Reference | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official Egypt totals | World Bank indicator (Personal remittances, received) | https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?locations=EG | Official annual total inflow baseline |
| Official Egypt totals | Central Bank of Egypt publications | https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/news-publications | Cross-check annual and YTD remittance updates |
| Bilateral structure | World Bank / KNOMAD bilateral remittance matrix | https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066146/knomad | Indicative source-country structure |
| Bilateral visualization | Migration Policy Institute Data Hub | https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/bilateral-remittance-flows | Directional validation of source-country ranking |
| Supporting proxy | UN DESA migrant stock | https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migrant-stock | Proxy for corridor weighting where bilateral values are missing |
| Enhancement | Disclosure-weighted corridor mapping | Workbook sheets: Corridor_Evidence, Reconciled_Country_Flows, Disclosure_Tracker | Introduces transparent scoring + reconciliation to Egypt official totals |
| Upgrade note | Disclosure tracker updated with concrete official source links | See Disclosure_Tracker reference block | Use official sender-country totals as evidence inputs; retain reconciliation to Egypt official totals |
| Growth justification | CBE 2025 official annual remittances release | https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/news-publications/news/2026/02/23/11/17/remittances-from-egyptians-working-abroad-record-usd-41,-d-,5-billion-during-2025 | Anchors 2025 total at USD 41.5bn |
| Growth justification | IMF Egypt Article IV / EFF report | https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1egyea2024002-print-pdf.pdf | Policy and FX-market normalization context for formal channel rebound |
| Growth justification | World Bank/KNOMAD remittance blog | https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/in-2024--remittance-flows-to-low--and-middle-income-countries-ar | Regional narrative supporting rebound timing and trend |
| Growth justification | World Bank remittance indicator (Egypt) | https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?locations=EG | Historical baseline and YoY validation |
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Country_Scenarios_2020_2025
| Source Country | ISO3 | Share | 2020 Base | 2020 Low | 2020 High | 2020 Conf. Band % | 2021 Base | 2021 Low | 2021 High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | 0.34 | 10064986000 | 9058487400 | 11071484600 | 0.1 | 10705580000 | 9635022000 | 11776138000 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | 0.22 | 6512638000 | 5861374200 | 7163901800.000001 | 0.1 | 6927140000 | 6234426000 | 7619854000.000001 |
| Kuwait | KWT | 0.09 | 2664261000 | 2397834900 | 2930687100 | 0.1 | 2833830000 | 2550447000 | 3117213000 |
| United States | USA | 0.07 | 2072203000 | 1699206460 | 2445199540 | 0.18 | 2204090000 | 1807353800 | 2600826200 |
| Jordan | JOR | 0.05 | 1480145000 | 1213718900 | 1746571100 | 0.18 | 1574350000 | 1290967000 | 1857733000 |
| Qatar | QAT | 0.04 | 1184116000 | 1065704400 | 1302527600 | 0.1 | 1259480000 | 1133532000 | 1385428000 |
| Oman | OMN | 0.03 | 888087000 | 799278300 | 976895700.0000001 | 0.1 | 944610000 | 850149000 | 1039071000 |
| Bahrain | BHR | 0.02 | 592058000 | 532852200 | 651263800 | 0.1 | 629740000 | 566766000 | 692714000 |
| Italy | ITA | 0.02 | 592058000 | 485487560.0000001 | 698628440 | 0.18 | 629740000 | 516386800.0000001 | 743093200 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | 0.02 | 592058000 | 485487560.0000001 | 698628440 | 0.18 | 629740000 | 516386800.0000001 | 743093200 |
| Germany | DEU | 0.015 | 444043500 | 364115670 | 523971330 | 0.18 | 472305000 | 387290100 | 557319900 |
| France | FRA | 0.01 | 296029000 | 242743780 | 349314220 | 0.18 | 314870000 | 258193400 | 371546600 |
| Canada | CAN | 0.01 | 296029000 | 242743780 | 349314220 | 0.18 | 314870000 | 258193400 | 371546600 |
| Greece | GRC | 0.005 | 148014500 | 121371890 | 174657110 | 0.18 | 157435000 | 129096700 | 185773300 |
| Others | OTH | 0.145 | 4292420500 | 3219315375 | 5365525625 | 0.25 | 4565615000 | 3424211250 | 5707018750 |
| TOTAL | - | 1 | 32119146500 | 27789722375 | 36448570625 | - | 34163395000 | 29558421250 | 38768368750 |
| Scenario Notes: | |||||||||
| 1) Base values are from Country_Flows_2020_2025. | |||||||||
| 2) Low/High are sensitivity bands around Base (not official bilateral disclosure). | |||||||||
| 3) Confidence bands by tier: A=+/-10%, B=+/-18%, C=+/-25%. | |||||||||
| 4) Use these ranges for investor planning, stress testing, and corridor prioritization. |
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Scenario_Summary
| Year | Base Total (US$) | Low Total (US$) | High Total (US$) | Range Width (US$) | Range Width % of Base | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 29602900000 | 25162465000 | 34043334999.999996 | 8880869999.999996 | 0.2999999999999999 | Disclosure-weighted reconciliation |
| 2021 | 31487000000.000004 | 26763950000.000004 | 36210050000 | 9446099999.999996 | 0.2999999999999998 | Disclosure-weighted reconciliation |
| 2022 | 28332800000.000008 | 24082880000.000008 | 32582720000.000008 | 8499840000 | 0.29999999999999993 | Disclosure-weighted reconciliation |
| 2023 | 19532099999.999985 | 16602284999.999987 | 22461914999.99998 | 5859629999.999994 | 0.29999999999999993 | Disclosure-weighted reconciliation |
| 2024 | 29559099999.999985 | 25125234999.999985 | 33992964999.99998 | 8867729999.999996 | 0.30000000000000004 | Disclosure-weighted reconciliation |
| 2025 | 41500000000.00004 | 35472728531.85593 | 47527271468.144005 | 12054542936.288078 | 0.2904709141274233 | Disclosure-weighted reconciliation |
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Corridor_Evidence
| Source Country | ISO3 | Region Group | Data Status | Primary Reference | Disclosure Notes | Base Evidence Score (0-100) | 2020 Adj | 2021 Adj | 2022 Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | GCC Core | Partial | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 95 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | GCC Core | Partial | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 88 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Kuwait | KWT | GCC Core | Partial | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 72 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Qatar | QAT | GCC Core | Partial | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 58 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Oman | OMN | GCC Core | Partial | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 46 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Bahrain | BHR | GCC Core | Partial | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 32 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Jordan | JOR | MENA Adjacent | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 38 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| United States | USA | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 44 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Italy | ITA | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 24 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 26 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Germany | DEU | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 19 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| France | FRA | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 15 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Canada | CAN | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 14 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Greece | GRC | OECD | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 10 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Spain | ESP | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 8 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Netherlands | NLD | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 7 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Belgium | BEL | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 6 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Switzerland | CHE | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 7 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Austria | AUT | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 5 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Sweden | SWE | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 4 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Norway | NOR | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Denmark | DNK | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Ireland | IRL | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Portugal | PRT | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 4 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Australia | AUS | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 5 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| New Zealand | NZL | OECD Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 2 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Japan | JPN | Asia Long Tail | Limited | Populate with sender-country central bank/statistics publication | Expanded long-tail coverage; update score with disclosed evidence when available | 4 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.97 |
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Reconciled_Country_Flows
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2020 Share | 2020 Value (US$) | 2021 Share | 2021 Value (US$) | 2022 Share | 2022 Value (US$) | 2023 Share | 2023 Value (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | 0.13157894736842105 | 3895118421.0526314 | 0.13157894736842102 | 4143026315.7894726 | 0.1315789473684209 | 3727999999.9999957 | 0.13157894736842088 | 2570013157.8947334 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | 0.12188365650969529 | 3608109695.2908587 | 0.12188365650969525 | 3837750692.5207744 | 0.12188365650969517 | 3453305263.1578913 | 0.12188365650969511 | 2380643767.313016 |
| Kuwait | KWT | 0.0997229916897507 | 2952089750.692521 | 0.09972299168975067 | 3139977839.3351793 | 0.0997229916897506 | 2825431578.9473658 | 0.09972299168975056 | 1947799445.983377 |
| Qatar | QAT | 0.08033240997229917 | 2378072299.168975 | 0.08033240997229915 | 2529426592.7977834 | 0.08033240997229908 | 2276042105.2631555 | 0.08033240997229905 | 1569060664.8199425 |
| Oman | OMN | 0.06371191135734072 | 1886057340.7202218 | 0.06371191135734071 | 2006096952.908587 | 0.06371191135734065 | 1805136842.1052613 | 0.06371191135734064 | 1244427423.8227131 |
| Bahrain | BHR | 0.0443213296398892 | 1312039889.196676 | 0.04432132963988918 | 1395545706.3711908 | 0.04432132963988915 | 1255747368.4210513 | 0.044321329639889134 | 865688642.6592785 |
| Jordan | JOR | 0.05263157894736842 | 1558047368.4210525 | 0.052631578947368404 | 1657210526.315789 | 0.05263157894736837 | 1491199999.9999986 | 0.05263157894736835 | 1028005263.1578933 |
| United States | USA | 0.060941828254847646 | 1804054847.6454294 | 0.060941828254847626 | 1918875346.2603872 | 0.060941828254847584 | 1726652631.5789456 | 0.060941828254847556 | 1190321883.656508 |
| Italy | ITA | 0.0332409972299169 | 984029916.897507 | 0.03324099722991689 | 1046659279.7783931 | 0.033240997229916865 | 941810526.3157885 | 0.03324099722991685 | 649266481.9944589 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | 0.036011080332409975 | 1066032409.9722992 | 0.03601108033240996 | 1133880886.4265924 | 0.036011080332409934 | 1020294736.8421042 | 0.03601108033240992 | 703372022.1606638 |
| Germany | DEU | 0.02631578947368421 | 779023684.2105262 | 0.026315789473684202 | 828605263.1578945 | 0.026315789473684185 | 745599999.9999993 | 0.026315789473684174 | 514002631.57894665 |
| France | FRA | 0.02077562326869806 | 615018698.0609418 | 0.020775623268698053 | 654162049.8614956 | 0.02077562326869804 | 588631578.9473678 | 0.020775623268698033 | 405791551.24653685 |
| Canada | CAN | 0.019390581717451522 | 574017451.5235456 | 0.01939058171745152 | 610551246.537396 | 0.019390581717451505 | 549389473.68421 | 0.019390581717451495 | 378738781.1634343 |
| Greece | GRC | 0.013850415512465374 | 410012465.3739612 | 0.01385041551246537 | 436108033.24099714 | 0.01385041551246536 | 392421052.63157856 | 0.013850415512465354 | 270527700.8310245 |
| Spain | ESP | 0.0110803324099723 | 328009972.299169 | 0.011080332409972296 | 348886426.5927977 | 0.011080332409972287 | 313936842.1052628 | 0.011080332409972284 | 216422160.66481963 |
| Netherlands | NLD | 0.009695290858725761 | 287008725.7617728 | 0.00969529085872576 | 305275623.268698 | 0.009695290858725752 | 274694736.842105 | 0.009695290858725747 | 189369390.58171716 |
| Belgium | BEL | 0.008310249307479225 | 246007479.22437674 | 0.008310249307479223 | 261664819.9445983 | 0.008310249307479216 | 235452631.57894713 | 0.008310249307479213 | 162316620.49861473 |
| Switzerland | CHE | 0.009695290858725761 | 287008725.7617728 | 0.00969529085872576 | 305275623.268698 | 0.009695290858725752 | 274694736.842105 | 0.009695290858725747 | 189369390.58171716 |
| Austria | AUT | 0.006925207756232687 | 205006232.6869806 | 0.006925207756232685 | 218054016.62049857 | 0.00692520775623268 | 196210526.31578928 | 0.006925207756232677 | 135263850.41551226 |
| Sweden | SWE | 0.00554016620498615 | 164004986.1495845 | 0.005540166204986148 | 174443213.29639885 | 0.0055401662049861435 | 156968421.0526314 | 0.005540166204986142 | 108211080.33240981 |
| Norway | NOR | 0.004155124653739612 | 123003739.61218837 | 0.0041551246537396115 | 130832409.97229914 | 0.004155124653739608 | 117726315.78947356 | 0.004155124653739606 | 81158310.24930736 |
| Denmark | DNK | 0.004155124653739612 | 123003739.61218837 | 0.0041551246537396115 | 130832409.97229914 | 0.004155124653739608 | 117726315.78947356 | 0.004155124653739606 | 81158310.24930736 |
| Ireland | IRL | 0.004155124653739612 | 123003739.61218837 | 0.0041551246537396115 | 130832409.97229914 | 0.004155124653739608 | 117726315.78947356 | 0.004155124653739606 | 81158310.24930736 |
| Portugal | PRT | 0.00554016620498615 | 164004986.1495845 | 0.005540166204986148 | 174443213.29639885 | 0.0055401662049861435 | 156968421.0526314 | 0.005540166204986142 | 108211080.33240981 |
| Australia | AUS | 0.006925207756232687 | 205006232.6869806 | 0.006925207756232685 | 218054016.62049857 | 0.00692520775623268 | 196210526.31578928 | 0.006925207756232677 | 135263850.41551226 |
| New Zealand | NZL | 0.002770083102493075 | 82002493.07479225 | 0.002770083102493074 | 87221606.64819942 | 0.0027700831024930718 | 78484210.5263157 | 0.002770083102493071 | 54105540.16620491 |
| Japan | JPN | 0.00554016620498615 | 164004986.1495845 | 0.005540166204986148 | 174443213.29639885 | 0.0055401662049861435 | 156968421.0526314 | 0.005540166204986142 | 108211080.33240981 |
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Disclosure_Tracker
| Source Country | ISO3 | Has Public Outbound Remittance Disclosure? | Latest Year Found | Data Granularity | Directly Usable for Egypt Mapping? | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | Likely / Partial | TBD | Aggregate or regional | Partially | Capture official publication URL and update score inputs |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | Likely / Partial | TBD | Aggregate or regional | Partially | Capture official publication URL and update score inputs |
| Kuwait | KWT | Likely / Partial | TBD | Aggregate or regional | Partially | Capture official publication URL and update score inputs |
| Qatar | QAT | Likely / Partial | TBD | Aggregate or regional | Partially | Capture official publication URL and update score inputs |
| Oman | OMN | Likely / Partial | TBD | Aggregate or regional | Partially | Capture official publication URL and update score inputs |
| Bahrain | BHR | Likely / Partial | TBD | Aggregate or regional | Partially | Capture official publication URL and update score inputs |
| Jordan | JOR | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| United States | USA | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| Italy | ITA | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| United Kingdom | GBR | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| Germany | DEU | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| France | FRA | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| Canada | CAN | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| Greece | GRC | Limited | TBD | Country aggregate | Partially | Collect indicator proxy and document assumption |
| Spain | ESP | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Netherlands | NLD | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Belgium | BEL | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Switzerland | CHE | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Austria | AUT | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Sweden | SWE | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Norway | NOR | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Denmark | DNK | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Ireland | IRL | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Portugal | PRT | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Australia | AUS | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| New Zealand | NZL | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
| Japan | JPN | Limited | TBD | Aggregate only | Proxy/partial | Use KNOMAD + migrant stock + sender-country macros |
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YOY_Growth_Justification
| Topic | Explicit Justification | How It Affects 2024-2025 YoY | Evidence Strength | Citation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FX unification and informal-to-formal channel shift | In March 2024, exchange-rate adjustment/unification reduced the spread between official and parallel rates, making formal banking/MTO channels materially more attractive than informal channels. | Large one-off formalization effect: flows previously routed outside official statistics were recaptured in recorded remittances, causing a sharp YoY step-up in 2024 and persistence into 2025. | High | IMF Article IV / EFF documentation; CBE remittance releases |
| Low-base rebound from 2023 | 2023 formal inflows were depressed versus prior trend due to FX market distortions and channel displacement. | When market conditions normalized, YoY growth mechanically appeared very high because the comparison base was unusually weak. | High | World Bank series + CBE annual updates |
| Confidence and liquidity normalization in official channels | Post-reform macro package and external support improved confidence in the formal financial system and availability of FX through official rails. | Higher confidence supports sustained use of official channels in 2025, limiting reversion to informal routing. | Medium-High | IMF program documents; CBE policy communications |
| Rate/instrument attractiveness for receivers | Higher domestic rates and formal FX product availability increased the incentive to receive and hold funds via official channels. | Supports both volume retention and timing acceleration of transfers in formal data. | Medium | CBE policy-rate context + banking product transmission (market practice) |
| Observed scale in official data | CBE reported approximately USD 29.6bn for 2024 and USD 41.5bn for 2025. | Confirms that the growth is not a modeling artifact; it is anchored in official realized totals. | High | CBE official releases |
| Reference URLs | ||||
| 1) CBE 2025 annual remittances release (USD 41.5bn): https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/news-publications/news/2026/02/23/11/17/remittances-from-egyptians-working-abroad-record-usd-41,-d-,5-billion-during-2025 | ||||
| 2) IMF Egypt Article IV / EFF context (FX reforms and normalization): https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2024/english/1egyea2024002-print-pdf.pdf | ||||
| 3) World Bank/KNOMAD remittance context for rebound narrative: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/in-2024--remittance-flows-to-low--and-middle-income-countries-ar | ||||
| 4) World Bank indicator series (Egypt remittances): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?locations=EG |
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Proj_Assumptions_26_31
| Input | Value | Unit | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anchor Year (Official) | 2025 | Year | CBE official total = USD 41.5bn |
| Anchor Total | 41500000000 | USD | From CBE release |
| Base Growth 2026 | 0.085 | % | Normalization after exceptional rebound |
| Base Growth 2027 | 0.075 | % | |
| Base Growth 2028 | 0.065 | % | |
| Base Growth 2029 | 0.06 | % | |
| Base Growth 2030 | 0.055 | % | |
| Base Growth 2031 | 0.05 | % | |
| Low Growth 2026 | 0.055 | % | Conservative case |
| Low Growth 2027 | 0.045 | % | |
| Low Growth 2028 | 0.04 | % | |
| Low Growth 2029 | 0.035 | % | |
| Low Growth 2030 | 0.03 | % | |
| Low Growth 2031 | 0.03 | % | |
| High Growth 2026 | 0.12 | % | Upside case |
| High Growth 2027 | 0.1 | % | |
| High Growth 2028 | 0.09 | % | |
| High Growth 2029 | 0.08 | % | |
| High Growth 2030 | 0.07 | % | |
| High Growth 2031 | 0.065 | % | |
| Country Share Basis | 2025 reconciled share | Text | Shares sourced from Reconciled_Country_Flows column M |
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Total_Projection_26_31
| Scenario | 2025 Anchor (USD) | 2026 (USD) | 2027 (USD) | 2028 (USD) | 2029 (USD) | 2030 (USD) | 2031 (USD) | 2025-2031 CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 41500000000 | 43782500000 | 45752712500 | 47582821000 | 49248219735 | 50725666327.05 | 52247436316.8615 | 0.03912903865095174 |
| Base | 41500000000 | 45027500000 | 48404562500 | 51550859062.5 | 54643910606.25 | 57649325689.59375 | 60531791974.07344 | 0.06493370439112822 |
| High | 41500000000 | 46480000000.00001 | 51128000000.000015 | 55729520000.00002 | 60187881600.00003 | 64401033312.00004 | 68587100477.28004 | 0.08734090064502364 |
| YoY Growth (%) by Scenario | ||||||||
| Scenario | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | ||
| Low | 0.05499999999999994 | 0.04499999999999993 | 0.040000000000000036 | 0.03499999999999992 | 0.030000000000000027 | 0.030000000000000027 | ||
| Base | 0.08499999999999996 | 0.07499999999999996 | 0.06499999999999995 | 0.06000000000000005 | 0.05499999999999994 | 0.050000000000000044 | ||
| High | 0.1200000000000001 | 0.10000000000000009 | 0.09000000000000008 | 0.08000000000000007 | 0.07000000000000006 | 0.06499999999999995 |
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Country_Projection_26_31
| Source Country | ISO3 | 2025 Share (Reconciled) | 2026 Base (USD) | 2027 Base (USD) | 2028 Base (USD) | 2029 Base (USD) | 2030 Base (USD) | 2031 Base (USD) | 2026 Low (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | SAU | 0.13157894736842096 | 6369021381.578943 | 6783007771.381575 | 7189988237.664469 | 7585437590.736014 | 7964709470.272816 | 0.008543908472516865 | 6020093749.999996 |
| United Arab Emirates | ARE | 0.12188365650969522 | 5899725069.252074 | 6283207198.753459 | 6660199630.678667 | 7026510610.3659935 | 7377836140.884294 | 0.00791435732191036 | 5576507894.736839 |
| Kuwait | KWT | 0.09972299168975064 | 4827047783.933516 | 5140805889.8891945 | 5449254243.282546 | 5748963226.663086 | 6036411387.996241 | 0.006475383263381204 | 4562597368.42105 |
| Qatar | QAT | 0.08033240997229912 | 3888455159.279776 | 4141204744.6329618 | 4389677029.31094 | 4631109265.923041 | 4862664729.219193 | 0.0052162809621681926 | 3675425657.894735 |
| Oman | OMN | 0.06371191135734068 | 3083947195.290857 | 3284403762.9847627 | 3481467988.7638483 | 3672948728.1458597 | 3856596164.553153 | 0.0041370504182713244 | 2914992763.1578927 |
| Bahrain | BHR | 0.04432132963988917 | 2145354570.6371179 | 2284802617.7285304 | 2421890774.792242 | 2555094767.4058156 | 2682849505.7761064 | 0.0028779481170583127 | 2027821052.6315777 |
| Jordan | JOR | 0.05263157894736839 | 2547608552.6315775 | 2713203108.55263 | 2875995295.065788 | 3034175036.294406 | 3185883788.1091266 | 0.0034175633890067467 | 2408037499.9999986 |
| United States | USA | 0.06094182825484761 | 2949862534.626037 | 3141603599.3767295 | 3330099815.3393335 | 3513255305.1829967 | 3688918070.442147 | 0.00395717866095518 | 2788253947.3684196 |
| Italy | ITA | 0.03324099722991688 | 1609015927.9778385 | 1713601963.296398 | 1816418081.0941818 | 1916321075.5543618 | 2012137129.33208 | 0.0021584610877937345 | 1520865789.4736834 |
| United Kingdom | GBR | 0.03601108033240995 | 1743100588.642658 | 1856402126.9044309 | 1967786254.5186968 | 2076014498.517225 | 2179815223.4430866 | 0.002338332845109879 | 1647604605.2631567 |
| Germany | DEU | 0.026315789473684195 | 1273804276.3157887 | 1356601554.276315 | 1437997647.532894 | 1517087518.147203 | 1592941894.0545633 | 0.0017087816945033734 | 1204018749.9999993 |
| France | FRA | 0.02077562326869805 | 1005634954.9861491 | 1071001227.0602487 | 1135261300.6838636 | 1197700672.221476 | 1257585705.83255 | 0.0013490381798710843 | 950541118.4210521 |
| Canada | CAN | 0.019390581717451512 | 938592624.6537391 | 999601145.2562321 | 1059577213.971606 | 1117853960.7400444 | 1173746658.7770467 | 0.0012591023012130118 | 887171710.5263152 |
| Greece | GRC | 0.013850415512465367 | 670423303.3240994 | 714000818.0401658 | 756840867.1225758 | 798467114.8143175 | 838390470.5550333 | 0.0008993587865807228 | 633694078.947368 |
| Spain | ESP | 0.011080332409972292 | 536338642.65927947 | 571200654.4321326 | 605472693.6980605 | 638773691.8514539 | 670712376.4440266 | 0.0007194870292645782 | 506955263.15789443 |
| Netherlands | NLD | 0.009695290858725756 | 469296312.32686955 | 499800572.6281161 | 529788606.985803 | 558926980.3700222 | 586873329.3885233 | 0.0006295511506065059 | 443585855.2631576 |
| Belgium | BEL | 0.00831024930747922 | 402253981.9944596 | 428400490.8240995 | 454104520.27354544 | 479080268.88859046 | 503034282.33302 | 0.0005396152719484336 | 380216447.36842084 |
| Switzerland | CHE | 0.009695290858725756 | 469296312.32686955 | 499800572.6281161 | 529788606.985803 | 558926980.3700222 | 586873329.3885233 | 0.0006295511506065059 | 443585855.2631576 |
| Austria | AUT | 0.006925207756232683 | 335211651.6620497 | 357000409.0200829 | 378420433.5612879 | 399233557.40715873 | 419195235.27751666 | 0.0004496793932903614 | 316847039.473684 |
| Sweden | SWE | 0.005540166204986146 | 268169321.32963973 | 285600327.2160663 | 302736346.84903026 | 319386845.92572695 | 335356188.2220133 | 0.0003597435146322891 | 253477631.57894722 |
| Norway | NOR | 0.00415512465373961 | 201126990.9972298 | 214200245.41204974 | 227052260.13677272 | 239540134.44429523 | 251517141.16651 | 0.0002698076359742168 | 190108223.68421042 |
| Denmark | DNK | 0.00415512465373961 | 201126990.9972298 | 214200245.41204974 | 227052260.13677272 | 239540134.44429523 | 251517141.16651 | 0.0002698076359742168 | 190108223.68421042 |
| Ireland | IRL | 0.00415512465373961 | 201126990.9972298 | 214200245.41204974 | 227052260.13677272 | 239540134.44429523 | 251517141.16651 | 0.0002698076359742168 | 190108223.68421042 |
| Portugal | PRT | 0.005540166204986146 | 268169321.32963973 | 285600327.2160663 | 302736346.84903026 | 319386845.92572695 | 335356188.2220133 | 0.0003597435146322891 | 253477631.57894722 |
| Australia | AUS | 0.006925207756232683 | 335211651.6620497 | 357000409.0200829 | 378420433.5612879 | 399233557.40715873 | 419195235.27751666 | 0.0004496793932903614 | 316847039.473684 |
| New Zealand | NZL | 0.002770083102493073 | 134084660.66481987 | 142800163.60803315 | 151368173.42451513 | 159693422.96286348 | 167678094.11100665 | 0.00017987175731614454 | 126738815.78947361 |
| Japan | JPN | 0.005540166204986146 | 268169321.32963973 | 285600327.2160663 | 302736346.84903026 | 319386845.92572695 | 335356188.2220133 | 0.0003597435146322891 | 253477631.57894722 |
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